CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 2 to 4 lower.
-November soybeans called 5 to 10 lower.
-December CBOT wheat called 5 to 10 lower.
US dollar is up 29 at 76.93. October crude is down $.47 at $68.82. Dow futures are up 13 points.
-The market will be watching the US trade dispute with China. On Friday we slapped extra duties on imports of Chinese tires.
-A recent poll suggests seven out of ten people lack confidence in the governments plans to avert future financial meltdowns.
-Obama speaks today about plans for the government to push its financial industry overhaul.
-Reuters/University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment, out on Friday, showed the strongest reading in three months. August levels were 65.7. Friday’s reading jumped to 70.2.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-Dry weather and mild temps will be seen this week. There is still talk about a frost around the 23rd – 25th but it is not seen a market moving issue yet.
Grain Market Influences:
On late Friday the US imposed trade penalties (extra duties) on imports of Chinese tires. China launched an anti-dumping investigation over imports of US chicken and autos. This could eventually have ramifications for their purchases of US soybeans.
Corn summary… Report numbers came in with yield slightly bearish at 161.9 but carryout actually looking bullish at 1.635 billion bushels (an increase of only 14 million). One of the most important numbers to come out of the report was the government increasing exports by 100 million bushels. Two possible theories for this increase could be expected inflation helping out demand or possibly the lower US dollar.
Israel seeks 25,000 tonnes of US corn and 34,000 tonnes of corn by-products. A separate tender is out for 25,000 tonnes of EU based corn.
Turkey sold 111,000 tonnes of corn overnight. No buyer was immediately identified.
China has cut its corn production estimate to 165.5 mmt due to severe drought in parts of the country. This is only down .3% from last year’s 165.92. Some analysts had been expecting a 10% drop.
Soybean summary… Beans received neutral numbers this morning. Yield was increased close to expectations at 42.3. Carryout numbers were increased but were 6 million under expectations. Early calls for beans were steady as the forecast had turned warmer which could have been a good sign to be selling this morning.
Wheat summary… As was mentioned earlier, one of the few things that can cause a bounce in the wheat would be to follow corn. That is exactly what we had in this market today. Just as corn found a rally at the end of the day so did wheat.
Israel seeks 25,000 tonnes of EU feed wheat.
Turkey sold 80,000 tonnes of wheat overnight. No buyer was immediately identified.
Indonesia may increase wheat imports in 2010 by 5% to 4.5 million metric tonnes.
Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!
-Wholesale beef closes down $.63 for choice and down $.42 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $1.34.
-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 cents higher.
October Lean Hogs are called 10 to 30 lower.
----Chart support 51.25 and resistance 55.05
October Live Cattle futures called steady to 10 lower.
----Chart support 86.20 and resistance 89.75.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called steady to 10 lower.
----Chart support 96.65 and resistance 101.50.
Livestock Market Influences:
The livestock trade will keep one eye on the developing chicken/vehicle/tire dispute with China
Lean hogs summary… It could be argued some of the setback in deferred hogs today may have come from the grain pricing issue. Today, USDA recognized the record crop in the fields. Though ending stock numbers may not have increased as much as expected, due to a surprising jump in feed and export use, the trade is already talking of higher stock numbers down the road.
Live cattle summary… Cash cattle traded this morning at $85. That was steady with last week but under the $1 higher hopes the trade was keeping. One thing today’s supply/demand report noted was an increase in their 2010 beef production estimate. It is still lower than 2009 levels
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: