CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 2 to 5 lower.

-November soybeans called 5 to 10 lower.

-December CBOT wheat called 3 to 6 lower.

US dollar is up 2 at 77.44. November crude is down $1.19 at $69.63. Dow futures are down 36 points.

Economic Information:

-Department of Labor releases the monthly job numbers. The trade expects the nation dropped 180,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate may go from 9.7% to 9.8%. The previous month saw losses of 216,000.

-Commerce Department releases factory orders for the month of August. The trade expects the report showed a .7% rise during August. July levels posted a 1.3% gain.

-China’s Purchasing Managers Index reported a 54.3 reading for September compared with 54.0 in August.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-Frost occurred in portions of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana overnight. Some damage may have occurred.

Grain Market Influences:

Deutsche Bank will rebalance the commodity mix in its DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund and DB Agriculture Fund. It will sell CMEGroup corn and wheat to meet new lower positions limits and replace those with other commodities. Specific commodities mentioned were KCBT wheat, CMEGroup soybeans, lean hogs, and live cattle.

Corn summary… Corn has spent the last week rallying from near 300 to near 350. This range has been developing since July. Technically, the longer a market trades sideways the more defined the support and resistance. Typically, trades expect that the major trend will reverse following an extended consolidation.
Taiwan purchased 60,000 tonnes of Brazilian corn.

Soybean summary… Good exports today with 1.385 mmt sold. All but about 100k of this was believed to be China (300 reported as Unknown). Remember China is now on holiday so they typically buy prior to a holiday.

Wheat summary… Allendale has dug into the stocks numbers to try and figure out WHY is there SO MUCH inventory around. The quarterly stocks report implies first quarter wheat usage at 771 million bushels. That is down a shocking 28% from last year’s first quarter.

Over the past week Australia sold 100,000 tonnes of wheat to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam for December and January delivery.

Philippines purchased 45,000 tonnes of US spring wheat.

Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry has increased its estimate of 2009 grain production to 21 million metric tonnes. Its previous estimate was 18 mmt.

USDA indicated it would resurvey unharvested acres of barley, oats, durum wheat and other spring wheat. Results would be released November 10.

The National Grain and Feed Association suggests March of 2010 would be a better start for the new storage rate changes than the CMEGroup’s planned September 2010 contract change.

Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!

Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes down $1.43 for choice and down $1.24 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes up $2.05?!?.

-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.

Livestock Futures:

October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 30 higher.

----Chart support 49.05 and resistance 51.50

October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.

Livestock Market Influences:

Deutche Bank may sell CMEGroup corn and wheat and buy KC wheat, CMEGroup soybeans, lean hogs, and live cattle to balance its portfolio.
Lean hogs summary… A chart of the closing prices shows for the last week and a half December lean hog futures are been in a sideways rage. The mid price is around 49.30 or so in this range.

Live cattle summary…Cash cattle traded in Nebraska today at $127 to $128 with most sales at that $127 level. That is down from last week’s $129 average. $2 lower on this dressed basis would imply $1 lower live prices.