CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 1 to 3 higher.

-November soybeans called 3 to 5 higher.

-December CBOT wheat called 2 to 5 higher.

US dollar is down 34 at 75.82. New lows for the US dollar were posted last night. November crude is up $.41 at $74.57. Crude hit $75.17 last night, the highest point of 2009. Dow futures are up 103 points. New highs posted for the Dow.

Economic Information:

-JP Morgan Chase & Co. reported earnings of 82 cents per share. That was better than the 52 cents per share expected
-September retail sales data will be released today.

-US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman indicated the economy would be producing well below its potential for some time. He also indicated expectations that future inflation would rather fall than rise.

-Bank of Japan left short term interest rates unchanged at .1% as expected.

-Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, the old Commodity Research Bureau index of commodity prices, rose to two month highs yesterday. Metals are leading the way higher.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-The weekend will be a little drier and warmer and allow for limited harvest progress. Rains later next week will continue delays.

Grain Market Influences:

Corn summary… Speculative traders are watching the funds and reacting minute by minute with the change in the dollar. We did see big volume spread unwinding with traders buying wheat and selling corn. Going into the close the dollar jumped 20 points and the corn fell 6 cents.

Soybean summary… Spread unwinding with wheat up and beans down was the main feature on the floor. Beans staged a rally just before the close while the dollar was below 76. Then a late 10 point bounce in the dollar turned into a 14 cent sell off from the high in the beans.

NOPA, the National Oilseed Processors Association, reports September soybean crushings totaled 107.379 million bushels. That was down from expectations of 113 million bushels. Look for more info on the Grain Fundamentals 1 page at 830 am to see how we are on track to meet USDA expectations!

Taiwan, on Friday, will tender for one cargo of soybeans from either the US or Brazil. Total volume will run from 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes. Delivery is set for late November to early December.

China reports it brought in 2.75 mmt of soybeans in September. That was down 12% from August levels.

Brazil soybean farmers have sold 15% of their new crop (in planting now, to be harvested in the spring). Last year at this time they had 19% sold.

Wheat summary… Huge buying today as funds are unwinding a long corn and beans – short wheat position. Remember that Deutche Bank has to liquidate a large wheat and corn position to get into position compliance with CFTC position limits.

Jordan purchased 100,000 tonnes of Black Sea origin wheat.

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Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes up $1.55 for choice and up $.73 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes up $1.65.

-Cash hogs are called steady.

Livestock Futures:

December Lean Hogs are called 10 to 30 higher.

----Chart support 52.10 and resistance 56.20

December Live Cattle futures called 20 to 50 higher.

----Chart support 82.75 and resistance 85.60.

November Feeder Cattle futures are called 20 to 40 higher.

----Chart support 92.50 and resistance 95.80.

Livestock Market Influences:

Lean hogs summary… Futures spent some time today in negative territory but managed a comeback by the close. Cash hogs were steady for the most part. We will point out cash pork managed a strong $1.65 close today.

Live cattle summary… Hopefully last night’s chart of wholesale beef prices, placed in this commentary, made an impression. There are still many short term reasons to carry the bearish flag in cattle and beef right now. We can find few long term bearish arguments though.