CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 1 to 3 higher.
-November soybeans called steady to 2 higher.
-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 3higher.
US dollar is up 18 at 76.67. November crude is up $0.37 at $71.25. Dow futures are up 8 points.
-US Mortgage applications rose last week to the highest level since mid-May while consumers look to take advantage of lower interest rates.
-President Obama is working with his national security team to develop a new strategy for the situation in Afghanistan.
-Oil prices rose above $71 a barrel with increased optimism of a global economic recovery.
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-No major changes in today’s forecast. Look for freezes in Kansas, northern and central Missouri, central Indiana, and central Ohio. There is still talk of snow in the northern and central Plains and western Corn Belt on Friday and Saturday and then again from Sunday night into Monday.
Grain Market Influences:
Funds bought 30k contracts and open interest +19,785. USDA report Friday.
Corn summary… Massive fund buying today as traders factored in a plethora of bullish factors today including: 1) rumors of 3 cargoes of US corn ethanol to be exported to Brazil (the world’s largest ethanol exporter). 2) frost, freeze, rain, snow 3) weak dollar 4) quality problems with mold and light test weight 5) technical resistance at 350 taken out.
Soybean summary… Forecasts for rain and snow provided support for futures today as a tight pipeline supply anxiously awaits new crop replenishing stocks. Cash prices “pop” to get a supply and quickly “retreat” when the supply is bought. Forecasts for a frost do not appear to threaten much production with only a few fields left to turn.
Steady Wet weather delaying bean harvest provides support but good yields continue to be reported. USDA report Friday
Taiwan seeks 60,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans.
Wheat summary… There was a huge range up day which took out last weeks high. As long as there is follow through the market will look encouraging. But the cash market remains heavily discounted to futures.
Japan seeks 149,000 tonnes of wheat in its regular tender. Of that 86,000 will be from the US.
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour.
Dry weather during Ukraine’s winter grain planting is starting concerns about their 2010 grain crop.
India’s government will allow the sale of up to 1 million metric tonnes of wheat to its states. No exports have been approved. The junior farm minister explained they still need to conserve grains given the poor monsoon season.
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-Wholesale beef closes up $.65 for choice and up $.05 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $.98.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
December Lean Hogs are called 5 to 15 lower.
----Chart support 47.75 and resistance 50.20
December Live Cattle futures called 5 to 15 higher.
----Chart support 82.75 and resistance 84.00.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called 20 to 25 higher.
----Chart support 92.10 and resistance 94.50.
Livestock Market Influences:
Lean hogs summary… Newswires are suggesting today’s run higher was based on the lower US dollar. It’s a nice story but realistically today’s US dollar action was pretty mild. The other reason, which is a bit more valid, was stability showing in cash hogs. While we can note that is good news there is nothing out there suggesting this is a dramatic turnaround.
Live cattle summary… Futures are overpriced compared with cash? Let’s work the math out here and show you the sentiment in this market. Yesterday’s October futures close was $82.67. Add in a normal basis for the end of October (-$.89) and futures are saying cash cattle will trade at $81.78 ($82) at the end of the month.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: