CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called steady to 2 higher.
-November soybeans called 4 to 8 higher.
-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 4 higher.
US dollar is down 30 at 78.13. October crude is up $.84 at $68.89. Dow futures are up 60 points.
-Weekly jobless benefit claims expected to show 560,000 compared with 570,000 the previous week.
-Institute of Supply Management to release its survey of the service industry later this morning. It is expected to show an index rating moving from 46.4 in July to 48.0 in August.
-Yesterday’s ADP employment report guessed 298,000 job losses for last month. That was the lowest job loss number since September 2008. It was larger than expected however. The Labor Department will weigh in with its monthly report tomorrow morning.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-No frost threats for the next two weeks. Temps will warm back to normal
Grain Market Influences:
Deliveries posted are as follows…166 contracts for corn (positions through 08/03), 3,765 contracts for wheat (positions through 09/02), 2,457 contracts for soyoil (positions through 09/02), and 7 contracts for oats (positions through 09/02).
Weekly export sales are viewed as bullish soybeans and neutral corn, soyoil, soymeal, and wheat.
Corn summary…Corn did not follow outside markets quite as much as it did yesterday. We saw broad based selling across many markets that caused corn to break out of the sideways pattern. Today’s trade was based more on fundamentals as we are currently looking at a forecast that gives the Midwest sun and warmth for two weeks. During this time trade will be looking for the crop to advance as we need it too before things turn cold once again and according to the long term forecast… it will.
South Korea purchased 55,000 tonnes of corn overnight.
Soybean summary… Weather is a concern to the bean market as well but as has been stated before there are far more events to consider. There was some talk this morning that due to recent active buying by China, there are expectations for that to slow. It seems we will find out a lot more about that tomorrow on the export sales report. If there were early sellers this morning in anticipation of a China slow down then it did not last long as the last trade for November was nearly unchanged.
Egypt seeks 30,000 tonnes of edible oil. 15,000 of that will come from soyoil while 15,000 tonnes will be sunflower oil.
Taiwan seeks 55,000 tonnes of US soybeans.
The USDA CCC purchased 18,730 tonnes of soymeal for donation to Philippines. They also purchased 1,250 tonnes of soyoil for Dominican Republic.
Wheat summary… Once again for the most part it can be said that this market was a follower of the row crops. When looking at the chart, it is easy to say that wheat is still in a down trending market. For that reason buying just can’t be suggested until we find a bottom but where is it?
Japan purchased 127,000 tonnes of food wheat in its regular tender. The US will supply 85,000 tonnes of that.
Yesterday morning it was announced Egypt purchased 330,000 tonnes of wheat. 60,000 of that is US based.
The USDA CCC is seeking 23,850 tonnes of wheat for donation to Ethiopia.
Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!
-Wholesale beef closes down $.48 for choice and down $.26 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes up $.12.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
October Lean Hogs are called 40 to 70 higher.
----Chart support 46.500 and resistance 51.20
October Live Cattle futures called 20 to 40 higher.
----Chart support 86.20 and resistance 89.75.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 96.65 and resistance 101.50.
Livestock Market Influences:
Yesterday morning, stories began to be aired suggesting JBS, the group who bought Swift & Co. in 2007, is now seeking to buy Pilgrim’s Pride, the nation’s largest chicken producer, for $2 billion. So far, JBS is denying the story.
Lean hogs summary… We got the good pullback in ham prices yesterday that we expected. However, as we pointed out this morning, the key issue here is how the trade took this bearish news. Though futures closed lower today, it was not a panic driven sale. Additionally, as noted this morning, recent volume/open interest statistics showed that Tuesday’s strong futures rally was exactly what the market wanted today.
Live cattle summary… This morning we clarified the crossroads this market is facing. If demand remains at the same lackluster pace seen in the second and third quarter, then cash cattle in the mid $80’s appears correct. That is what futures are implying right now. On the other hand with supply tightening seasonally and the potential for a slight rebound in demand, a strong case for high $80’s to low $90’s can be seen.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: