CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 1 to 3 lower.

-November soybeans called 2 to 5 lower.

-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 3 lower.

US dollar is down 53 at 76.82. November crude is up $.93 at $67.64. Dow futures are up 40 points.

Economic Information:

-Commerce Department will release its report on consumer income and spending today.

-Commerce Department also releases a revision to second quarter GDP today. The trade expects it to show a 1.1% contraction.

-ADP Employment Survey gets its crack at guessing the government numbers. Their estimates of job losses will be out at 715 am CST. The trade expects it to show 200,000 job losses compared with its August numbers of a 298,000 loss.

-Department of Labor will release the monthly job numbers on Friday. The trade expects unemployment to go from 9.7% in August to 9.8% in September.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-Freezing temps were felt overnight in central and northern Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. There was likely damage to crops in those areas but it is questionable if it was market worthy news. This morning’s forecast does show a chance of near freezing temps for the north eastern cornbelt (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio) for tonight. Another shot of near freezing temps is forecast for the end of next week (October 8 and 9). The vast majority of growing areas will appear to escape frost by maturity. Mild temps and precip will be seen in the coming week.

Grain Market Influences:

Tomorrow morning the annual Small Grains Summary and quarterly Grain Stocks reports will be released.

Corn summary… For six trading sessions, corn futures have rallied 25 cents. Today we are 7 cents higher for the week. We expect the 347 3/4 frost scare high will cap the rally. China’s drought and frost related losses are expected to reduce production 10 mmt. That is a lot… about 400 million bushels worth.

Quarterly Grain Stocks report found corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels compared with the 1.719 billion bushel average guess. USDA will have to lower its old crop ending stock number was the most recent WASDE report showed 1.695 billion. This is supportive.

South Korea purchased 45,000 tonnes of US corn.

China sold 387,300 tonnes of corn in its weekly sale. 3,193,800 tonnes were offered. This was the lowest amount sold yet.

Soybean summary… The biggest news in beans is the basis. Many farmers are getting a gift and taking advantage of strong basis bids that are “filling in” old crop tight supplies. If your local market offers a premium and you can get into the field, take it, get it, and run!

Quarterly Grain Stocks report found soybean stocks at 138 million bushels compared with the 111 million bushel average guess. USDA will have to raise its old crop ending stock estimate from the latest 110 million. This is bearish

Wheat summary… Egypt bought Russian versus US wheat today. That was disappointing. Just when the market looks like it might be bottoming, support is taken out and another round of technical stops are hit as the market washes out long ownership.

Quarterly Grain Stocks report found wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared with the 2.131 billion bushel average guess. This is bearish.

The annual Small Grains report found wheat production at 2.220 billion bushels compared with a 2.196 billion bushel average guess. The latest production estimate, on the monthly WASDE report, was 2.184 billion. This is moderately bearish.

South Korea bought 19,500 tonnes of US wheat.

Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!

Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes up $.20 for choice and up $.30 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes down $1.41.

-Cash hogs are called steady.

Livestock Futures:

October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 30 lower.

----Chart support 49.05 and resistance 51.50

October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.

Livestock Market Influences:

Lean hogs summary… Higher trade was seen today but the market was not able to break out of the recent week or so sideways action. As it stands right now October futures are implying cash hogs will fall $1.27 by October 14 while December futures are implying a $1.37 discount by December 14.

Live cattle summary… The beef pits were a little disturbed by today’s Consumer Confidence index release. Instead of an increase from the August 54.5 reading, as was expected, the September levels fell to 53.1. You may remember on the 730 am Kick Start page of this Advisory Report, we noted the average guess was for a 57.0 reading! Bottom line here is even though the economy may be bottoming, consumers are not feeling it.