CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 1 to 3 lower.

-November soybeans called steady to 2 lower.

-December CBOT wheat called 3 to 6 lower.

US dollar is up 48 at 77.34. November crude is down $.59 at $70.04. Dow futures are down 37 points.

Economic Information:

-Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing index for the month of September today. The trade expects to see an index reading of 54.0 compared with 52.9 the previous month.

-Commerce Department releases personal income and spending data for the month of August today. The trade expects to see consumer spending to post a 1.1% increase compared with a .2% increase in July.

-Department of Labor will report on weekly jobless benefit claims this morning. The trade expects to see 535,000 compared with 530,000 last week.

-Department of Labor will release the monthly job numbers on Friday. The trade expects unemployment to go from 9.7% in August to 9.8% in September.

-IMF raised its forecast for the global economy from .8% to now 1.5%. It also cautioned about large public debt and tight credit conditions for both consumers and businesses.

-GM announced Penske Automotive Group Inc. walked away from its interest in the Saturn brand. The Saturn brand only accounted for 4% of GM’s sell and apparently never made money.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-Frost occurred in portions of Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana overnight. Some damage may have occurred.

Grain Market Influences:

Weekly export sales report is viewed as bullish corn, and soybeans, neutral to soyoil and wheat, and bearish soymeal.

Corn summary… Yesterday speculators rallied the corn up to 347 which is still short of the frost resistance of 347 3/4. Today we were given a quarterly stocks report of 1.674 billion bushels which was below expectations of 1.719 billion. This quarterly stocks report was important as that is what USDA will adjust its old crop ending number numbers to.

One US firm estimates corn yield at 163.3 bushels per acre at 13.064 billion bushels. USDA latest is 12.954 billion.

Soybean summary… We were expecting to see a very tight soybean stocks number this morning around 111 million bushels. That would be little changed from USDA’s previous old crop ending stock guess at 110. What we were given was an increase to 138.

US Census Bureau reported August soyoil stocks fell to 3.014 million lbs from July levels of 3.331. Methyl Ester production (biodiesel) in August used 156,297 lbs of soyoil compared with 148,864 in July.

Egypt purchased 11,000 tonnes of soyoil and 30,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, of optional origin.

Taiwan purchased 48,000 tonnes of soybeans. Origin will either be US or Brazil.

The Soybean Processors Association of India reports it estimates 2009 soybean production for India to be 9.72 mmt compared with 10.82 a year ago.

One US firm estimates soybean yield at 43.4 bushels per acre at 3.329 billion bushels. USDA latest is 3.245 billion.

Wheat summary… We were looking for a stocks number of 2.131 billion bushels and were given 2.215 as of September 1. It was evident that speculators were in the wheat today. While some suggestions of speculators can be looked at in beans and corn, the jump higher in the wheat pit was spec buying driven.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry ups its estimate of 2009 grain production from 85 to now 90 million metric tonnes. Drought losses were not as high as expected.

Morocco seeks 400,000 tonnes of wheat. It will most likely be filled by EU suppliers.

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Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes down $1.25 for choice and down $.88 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes down $1.79.

-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.

Livestock Futures:

October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 30 lower.

----Chart support 49.05 and resistance 51.50

October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.

Livestock Market Influences:

Lean hogs summary… The market is starting to be overcome by this supply issue. As we have noted a few times here, pork production increases each week into late November/early December. Cash hogs typically break into December or so.

Live cattle summary… Wow. If we only looked at the charts we would be pretty excited. .Live cattle futures pushed clearly below the last four days of trading action and then rallied back to post the highest close since September 16! On the charts, today’s clear rejection of lower trade represents something very impressive.