CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 1 to 4 higher.
-November soybeans called 1 to 3 higher.
-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 3 higher.
US dollar is up 13 at 77.40. November crude is down $.70 at $66.15. Dow futures are down 17 points.
-Weekly crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 500,000 by the end of last week. Distillate and gasoline inventories are expected to have risen by 1.1 million barrels each. The API guess will be out this afternoon while the Department of Energy’s EIA numbers will be out tomorrow morning.
-The Conference Board will release the September Consumer Confidence index at 9 am CST today. The trade expects the index to have risen from August levels of 54.1 to 57.0 for September.
-The Case/Schiller home price index will be released at 8 am CST.
-On Wednesday the Commerce Department will release its report on consumer income and spending.
-Department of Labor will release the monthly job numbers on Friday. The trade expects unemployment to go from 9.7% in August to 9.8% in September.
-US consumers plan to spend an average of $56.31 this year on Halloween. Last year they spent $66.54. These numbers come from a National Retail Federation survey.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-Near freezing temps will be seen tomorrow morning. Another shot of near freezing temps is forecast for the end of next week (October 8 and 9). Mild temps and precip will be seen in the coming week.
Grain Market Influences:
Tomorrow morning the annual Small Grains Summary and quarterly Grain Stocks reports will be released.
Corn summary… There are a good number of rumors as to why corn was supported today. One was talk that China may import corn due to loss of production from both drought and frost. While that is being discussed it is strongly felt that China will not be an importer of US corn so we should be cautious of thinking that could cause a rally.
A Chinese feed mill purchased 3,000 tonnes of Thailand corn.
South Korea seeks 45,000 tonnes of US corn. Taiwan seeks 56,000 to 60,000 tonnes of US or Brazil corn.
Soybean summary… As expected many people have started harvesting their beans this week. Yields continue to come in slightly above expectations for most areas with a few exceptions of course. This is likely to be one of the reasons why beans did not participate in the support found in the corn. As mentioned for corn, another reason could be funds selling beans as they are long this market before the end of the quarter.
Taiwan seeks 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of either US or Brazil soybeans.
Wheat summary… It is another day where wheat does not give us strong ideas about future direction. While it did not fall off after breaking the $4.50 support, it also did not bounce back very much higher. Spring wheat harvest is wrapping up and current weather is seen as bearish for planting at least thus far.
South Korea is seeking 19,500 tonnes of US wheat. Egypt seeks 30,000 to 60,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation forecasts the country’s grain crop at 47 million metric tonnes. That is down from 53.3 mmt posted last year. Exports are seen at 20 to 21 mmt which is above the government’s current 17 to 18 mmt expectation.
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-Wholesale beef closes up $.18 for choice and up $.40 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes up $.73.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
October Lean Hogs are called 30 to 50 higher.
----Chart support 49.05 and resistance 51.50
October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.
----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.
Livestock Market Influences:
Lean hogs summary… Friday’s Hogs and Pigs gave the trade something to talk about but did not change minds. Technically, the numbers came in a little smaller than the average guesses, if you extend the percentage out to one decimal point. However, the overall message here has not changed.
Live cattle summary… There is a bit of confusion regarding this week’s cash cattle potential. Showlists will likely come out smaller than last week, as they should each week through November. That is certainly bullish for seasonal pricing. On the other hand packers may try to dig in and avoid paying higher prices. Cattle bought this week will be slaughtered in the first week of October which puts packers back into “captive supplies” they can draw from.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: