CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 5 to 10 higher.

-November soybeans called 8 to 12 higher.

-December CBOT wheat called 6 to 10 higher.

US dollar is down 33 at 76.50. November crude is up $1.02 at $71.44. Dow futures are up 73 points.

Economic Information:

-Australia’s central bank raises rates. This is the first central bank to do so since the recession hit. The bank governor suggested it was time to take away the extra stimulus provided by the low interest rates. This is a sign they believe the economy is showing health.

-Yesterday’s Institute for Supply Management’s service index was important to see. It posted a reading of 50.9 for the month of September which was above expectations of 50. August levels were 48.4. This report was important because it was the first reading over 50 since August of last year.

-An OPEC official denied reports the oil exporters would replace the US dollar in their sales. A British newspaper recently carried a story suggesting that move was to take place.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-Snow? October? Apparently forecasters ARE suggesting rain and snow in the next five days across the Midwest. Freezes will occur into Wednesday of next week into Nebraska, northern Missouri. Central-Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Next week will trend warmer.

Grain Market Influences:

Yesterday’s run higher was based off two rumors 1) There is talk we sold three cargoes of ethanol to Brazil. The rumor suggests they are selling sugar straight out due to the tight sugar supplies and needed to fill in ethanol orders. That sounds good but some US energy analysts say US ethanol does not match their specs. We cannot confirm this rumor yet. 2) Some weather models imply snow.

Corn summary… Spec buyers were finally able to take out the $3.47 3/4 level today. It was a slow move higher from this morning where we were called to open 2 lower, which we did but then slowly traded higher before stopping just short of the resistance level.

Soybean summary… Beans were the market that was least affected by spec money today. While some support can be expected from recent rains slowing harvest, the beans found most of their support following corn today.

Taiwan seeks 60,000 tonnes of US or Brazil soybeans.

Wheat summary… There was early support today so there are questions where it came from. This was spec buying from the funds and there a few reasons that stick out at us to prove that. Managed money has been buyers of wheat recently and wheat was subject to broad based commodity buying.

Japan seeks 149,000 tonnes of wheat in its regular tender. Of that 86,000 will be from the US.

Mauritius seeks 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour.

Russia’s harvest totals 93 million metric tonnes of grain so far. That is down 15,000 tonnes from last year’s pace at this time. A total of 85% of the crop has been harvested.

Dry weather during Ukraine’s winter grain planting is starting concerns about their 2010 grain crop.

India’s government will allow the sale of up to 1 million metric tonnes of wheat to its states. No exports have been approved. The junior farm minister explained they still need to conserve grains given the poor monsoon season.

Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!

Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes down $.02 for choice and down $.76 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes up $.13.

-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.

Livestock Futures:

December Lean Hogs are called 10 to 30 lower.

----Chart support 48.15 and resistance 50.50

December Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 83.75 and resistance 85.60.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called steady to 10 lower.

----Chart support 92.10 and resistance 96.75.

Livestock Market Influences:

Lean hogs summary… A quick look at the charts found in the Special Reports section of our website tells the story here. The charts near the bottom of the page shows pork production will slowly build into late November/early December and cash hog prices respond.

Live cattle summary… We are now operating under the cloud of “no end to this demand problem”. The trade is bearish and futures are now implying a decline in cash cattle prices in the coming weeks instead of a normal increase. The bad news is we just don’t know when “exactly” this job loss number will get back to zero.