CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 1 to 3 lower.
-January soybeans called 5 to 10 lower.
-December CBOT wheat called 2 to 4 lower.
US dollar is up 28 at 75.39. December crude is down $.68 at $80.71. Dow futures are up 20 points.
-Recent poor earning numbers are slowing the drop in the US dollar (concerns about risk).
-In the first half of 2009, 88% of China’s economic growth has been estimated to come from government spending.
-The Swedish central bank kept interest rates at .25%. The bank indicated they would keep rates near zero in the future.
-Weekly jobless benefit claims, to be released this morning, are expected to be 515,000, up 1,000 from last week.
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-Widespread rain for the week has started. Eventually all areas will see rain sometime between this afternoon and Friday. Harvest will be restricted during this time. Next week’s forecast shows rain and possibly snow.
Grain Market Influences:
Weekly export sales are viewed as bullish wheat and soybeans, neutral to soymeal and soyoil, and bearish corn.
Corn summary… Today the US dollar index fell 60 cents during grain trade. That is why corn found a bounce. There was talk of rain slowing harvest but don’t be fooled. This was not a fundamental move higher by any means. Today was fund buying 100%.
Soybean summary… While rain does have more of an influence in this market than it does in corn it would be safe to say that 90% of the buying was likely speculative. Since this morning, the forecast has not changed and our opening call was for 5 lower. Beans took out a first resistance and are quickly approaching another at 1018 3/4.
Monthly US Census Bureau crush for September reported at 113.976 million bushels. That was close to expectations of 113.7 million bushels. That was a poor start to the marketing year at 9% lower than last year. However, this poor number was expected as the NOPA report, earlier this month, told us what to expect. Keep in mind USDA expects total crush this marketing year to be 1.7% over last year.
South Korea purchased 55,000 tonnes of South American soymeal overnight.
Argentina’s soybean planting is expected to increase to 19 million hectares compared with 17.75 million last year. This comes from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
Wheat summary… When it comes to grains, wheat is the one currently most affected by the change in the dollar and fund influence. That was well proven today as wheat ended the day with more of a gain than either corn or beans. More than beans and this is a market with only half the underlying value right now.
Japan purchased 133,000 tonnes of food wheat overnight. 91,000 tonnes of that will come from the US.
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-Wholesale beef closes down $1.08 for choice and up $.25 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $.60.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
December Lean Hogs are called 10 lower to 10 higher.
----Chart support 53.10 and resistance 55.20
December Live Cattle futures called 10 to 25 lower.
----Chart support 85.20 and resistance 87.60.
November Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.
----Chart support 94.75 and resistance 97.00.
Livestock Market Influences:
China produced 6.3% more pork in the first nine months of this year than the same period last year. Total meat output rose 5.6%.
Lean hogs summary… That Iowa/Minnesota report, which we discussed briefly yesterday, showed lower prices on both the morning and afternoon updates. The one unique packer which has been pushing negotiated (free market) hog prices in the past three weeks was not a factor today.
Live cattle summary… Officially, live cattle futures have been in an uptrend for only two weeks now. It is interesting, and good news for bulls, that much of the trade is not completely bulled up yet.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: