CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 3 to 7 higher.

-November soybeans called 2 to 5 higher.

-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 4 higher.

US dollar is down 24 at 76.58. October crude is down $.13 at $71.81. Dow futures are up 12 points.

Economic Information:

-The Department of Energy’s EAI indicated a 5.9 million barrel drawdown in crude stocks. That was clearly more than estimates.

-Traders will be watching to see if gold can post a weekly close (this afternoon) over $1,000 per ounce.

-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released today. The trade expects a slight increase from August levels.

-Commerce Department will report on wholesale inventories for July. The report is expected to show the 11th straight month of inventory declines (down 1%) but could show sales increasing for the third straight month (up .5%).

-The Wall Street Journal reports Yale’s endowment has lost 30% in one year.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-No frost can be found in the two week forecast. Temps will move to above normal and precip will dry a little in the coming week.

Grain Market Influences:

Monthly supply/demand report is viewed as bullish corn and neutral bullish soybeans and wheat.

Weekly export sales are viewed as bullish corn, soybeans, soymeal, neutral wheat, and bearish soyoil.

Corn summary… Today started off with an opening call about as simple as you could ask for, even. Not much was expected in corn today but to just stay calm and wait out the number that we will be getting tomorrow.

In an attempt to placate farmers, Argentina’s president will give small and medium farmers a 100% rebate on corn and wheat export taxes.

Taiwan purchased 60,000 tonnes of US corn overnight. A separate Taiwanese company purchased 58,000 tonnes of US corn overnight.

China has cut its corn production estimate to 165.5 mmt due to severe drought in parts of the country. This is only down .3% from last year’s 165.92. Some analysts had been expecting a 10% drop.

Soybean summary… Once again the beans did not find the support that corn saw today. To break a similar down trend for beans they would need to trade above 975. Beans did trade higher with the corn for a while but stopped well short of the next 940 resistance level only getting up to 934 3/4 before selling back late in the day.

China reports soybean imports in August fell by 29% to 3.13 million metric tonnes. July posted a 4.4 mmt import level. The peak this year came in June at 4.7 mmt.

Wheat summary… Another day goes by without any bullish news for this market. There was a rally to go along with the one found in corn so support may need to be found in outside markets because bullish fundamental news is just not there. We have been suggesting to producers that a bounce in corn and beans should be seen as a selling opportunity not only for this year but a chance to hedge for next year as well.

Peru purchased 140,000 tonnes of Russian milling wheat overnight.

In an attempt to placate farmers, Argentina’s president will give small and medium farmers a 100% rebate on corn and wheat export taxes.

Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!

Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes down $.74 for choice and down $.51 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes up $.92.

-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 cents higher.

Livestock Futures:

October Lean Hogs are called 10 to 30 higher.

----Chart support 51.25 and resistance 55.05

October Live Cattle futures called steady to 10 higher.

----Chart support 86.20 and resistance 89.75.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called steady to 10 higher.

----Chart support 96.65 and resistance 101.50.

Livestock Market Influences:

Lean hogs summary… Futures were on a tear today on comments from Secretary of Agriculture Vilsack. He indicated, in a conference call, the USDA would buy more pork for food assistance programs when funding is replenished for the new fiscal year starting October 1. "That puts us in the position to begin making purchases again, which I have no doubt we will continue to do," were his comments.

Live cattle summary… One side effect of this lower corn level is returning interest in cattle feeding. We ran a budget on feeding steers out until February and found an $86.68 breakeven. February futures, with a normal basis for that timeframe applied, are implying 86.78 cash cattle.