CBOT Grain Futures Calls:

-December corn called 2 to 5 lower.

-November soybeans called 4 to 8 lower.

-December CBOT wheat called 2 to 4 lower.

US dollar is up 38 at 77.05. November crude is down $1.55 at $70.94. Dow futures are down 49 points.

Economic Information:

-The Centre for Global Energy Studies states, “"There will be little or no sustained upward pressure on oil prices until global economic recovery is firmly established and reviving oil demand begins to draw down bulging oil inventories."

-The International Energy Agency estimates world electricity output was likely to drop this year for the first time since 1945.

-Deloitte's retail group reports holiday spending may be flat versus a year ago. Last year holiday spending was down 2.4% from the previous year.

Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).


-Frost free for the next two weeks. We are nearing the point where frost no longer has market significance. Off and on rains and mild temps are the rule now.

Grain Market Influences:

Harvest of soybeans and some early corn varieties has begun.

Corn summary… This morning and at noon we were given two more forecasts that are frost free until October 3rd. Trade is only concerned with frosts that occur in September. For a good part of the day corn remained supported above 320.

China’s agriculture minister suggests the corn crop is equal to, or maybe even larger than normal years. He stated higher plantings this year could offset the drought. He did not mention any specific numbers.

Soybean summary… While we were keeping a close eye on our frost concerns there was talk that China recently saw an early frost themselves. This could amount to as much as 3 MMT of soybean production lost. Along with that, the delta continues to receive flooding rains keeping everything halted there. That area does not look to see any relief soon with a forecast that calls for continued rains for the next 8 days.

Soybean rust has been detected in three counties of Missouri. Earlier this week Illinois officials noted they were expecting it in the southern part of the state.

Wheat summary… There was some actual bullish news for wheat this morning. One US firm released an estimate that all wheat production would go down to 2154 mmt down from USDA’s last estimate of 2184 mmt. They also put out an estimate that projected plantings would be 41.63 million acres which is down from the 43.44 mmt planted last year.

Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!

Livestock Comments:

-Wholesale beef closes down $.48 for choice and down $.52 for select.

-Pork carcass cutout closes down $.25.

-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.

Livestock Futures:

October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 40 higher.

----Chart support 50.75 and resistance 54.50

October Live Cattle futures called 20 to 30 lower.

----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.

October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 lower.

----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.

Livestock Market Influences:

Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish for this morning.

Lean hogs summary… A report out of China reminded the trade that their country is on a herd rebuilding program. It noted they will have close to a 4% gain in production in 2010. It also reminds the trade we should not expect a rebound in exports over there.

Live cattle summary… USDA counted 2.4% more cattle going into feedlots during August than last year. That was just above the .9% higher estimate from the average guess but under our 4.5% higher expectations. We cannot argue with this number. Placements were higher because corn is low priced, deferred live cattle futures were projecting breakeven are a small profit, and also because 2008 placements were limited in the fall.