CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 5 to 10 higher.
-January soybeans called 13 to 18 higher.
-December CBOT wheat called 10 to 15 higher.
US dollar is up 24 at 75.48. December crude is down $.06 at $81.13. Dow futures are up 8 points.
-Existing home sales will be released this morning. The trade expects September sales to run 5.35 million compared with 5.10 million in August. That would be up 5% from previous year levels. This increase could come from tax credit based buyers.
-A German confidence index shows seven straight months of increases now.
-Britain indicated third quarter GDP fell. This was a surprise as the trade was expecting the recession to be over and for GDP to increase.
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-The forecasted widespread rains are happening right on cue. There will be limited harvest potential in the next week to ten days.
Grain Market Influences:
Corn summary… For much of the day corn acted like it wanted to sell off. Export sales were very bearish at only 250k tonnes. The US export pace is getting dangerously behind USDA’s projection (about 9%) and a revision down for US export demand may be needed.
Israel buys 30,000 tonnes of Black Sea origin corn.
Soybean summary… Futures traded lower most of the day with a late rally sparked by dollar weakness as the day progressed. Cash markets in IL, IA, MO, and KS are starting to weaken as beans move to the market while some markets east were firm.
Chinese soybean crushers say they are finished buying from the US for 2009 delivery. They are now working on 2010 deliveries. They already have 15 million tonnes lined up from the US and 5 million tonnes from South America for 2010 delivery.
Indonesia decides to keep its palm oil export tax at zero.
Wheat summary… Funds have been short wheat and are reversing this position. This week’s support at 494 is now a critical point on the chart. Expect buyers to show up on breaks and will use 494 as their risk. Resistance is at 586 and we would expect both profit taking and new selling against those levels. 582 is also a 50% retracement of the entire high-low sell off.
Israel buys 30,000 tonnes of Black Sea origin feed wheat.
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-Wholesale beef closes up $.87 for choice and up $.10 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $.18.
-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 cents lower.
December Lean Hogs are called steady to 10 higher.
----Chart support 53.10 and resistance 55.20
December Live Cattle futures called 20 to 30 higher.
----Chart support 85.20 and resistance 87.60.
November Feeder Cattle futures are called 15 to 25 higher.
----Chart support 94.75 and resistance 97.00.
Livestock Market Influences:
Taiwan lifts its ban on bone-in US beef! They are still requiring only beef from cattle aged under 30 months.
Lean hogs summary… A second day in a row of low volume trading was seen. The market is noting there are mixed signals from the cash side of things. Wholesale pork fell a slight 18 cents today while cash hogs were steady to just a little higher.
Live cattle summary… So, last week’s average cash cattle price was $83. That includes a few thousand Friday sales at $84. On Tuesday a few thousand moved at $84.50. Today, we see more trades at $85.50. There is even talk that remaining numbers for tomorrow will move at $86.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: