Corn                                       Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up                     Net Long Futures and Options: 59615
Overnight Trade: Z +1         Change: +10000
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower


This morning’s corn numbers weren’t far from the average trade guesses. Yield came in higher than expected at 164.2 bu/ac, but due to a cut in acreage production was in line with expectations at 13.018 billion and ending stocks were as expected at 1.672 billion. Other than the yield figure the numbers aren’t much different than last month. The chart has a double top and the market is overbought, which will be a concern to traders today and the outside markets aren’t providing support right now. Opening calls are lower, but two sided trade is likely.

Wheat                                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: -51276
Long Term: Down                      Change: +5000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -4 KC: Z -1
Opening Calls: 4-6 Lower


The wheat numbers were the most bearish of the day. Ending stocks came in much higher than expected at 864 million. There hasn’t been much positive news for the wheat anyway and this just makes things worse. The charts are looking better after the recent run higher, but today’s action could take the market back to the lower end of the trading range.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                         Net Long Futures and Options: 15600
Long Term: Down                     Change: +7000
Overnight Trade: X +4 1/2
Opening Calls: Mixed


The soybean numbers were friendly this morning. Production was lower than expected at 3.250 billion and ending stocks were lower than expected at 230 million. The export estimate is at a new record high of 1.305 billion. Early opening calls are both sides of unchanged. As we go through the day there is a strong possibility that we see spread trade that favors the soybeans. From a technical stand point it looks like the November soybeans could still make it to the $9.50 area.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: 20-30 Higher


Live cattle futures closed higher in all but the October contract for the second day in a row. Support for deferred contracts seems to be mounting, with ideas that the northern glut of big cattle is close to being cleaned up. Beef prices continued lower on Thursday, but there are signs that demand has improved in the past week. Some cash trade is expected, particularly in the south before the day is over. Asking prices remain in the $83-$84 level, with bids no better than $81-$81.50. Overnight futures trade is currently .20-.50 higher in the fats.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Call: Steady/Higher


Feeder cattle futures finished mostly higher on Thursday, with gains of as much as .62 in the lead months. The recovery over the past couple of days, in the face of new highs in the corn market move, has been encouraging. Overnight trade was mixed, with traders hesitant to take on new positions ahead of this morning grain report. Any large directional move in the corn could spur buying or selling in the feeders.