Corn                                         Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up                         Net Long Futures and Options: -6163
Overnight Trade: Z -4 3/4         Change: -8000
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

Corn was active overnight with decent volume and a wide, two sided trading range. By the end of the session though, with no cold temps in the forecast there was little to support the corn. Export sales were adequate at 965,600 MT, so that won’t provide any extra support to the market either. The $3.30 area will be critical support today in the December corn. A close below that level will mark the end of the correction and possibly the beginning of another leg lower.

Wheat                                       Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -66122
Long Term: Down                    Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -2 3/4 KC: Z -2 1/4
Opening Calls: 2-3 Lower

There won’t be much to support the wheat today if the corn and soybeans are trading lower. Outside market influences are neutral and export sales need to be better than 449,400 MT, to cause consistent strength in the market. We probably won’t see a new low for the move today, but it is a possibility by tomorrow.

Soybeans                                   Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: 11324
Long Term: Down                     Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: X -9
Opening Calls: 7-10 Lower

The oversold condition of the soybean market has been relieved and without a frost threat, we need to look for harvest pressure to resume. There is still a long way to go to take back all of Tuesday’s gains, but it could certainly happen by tomorrow. That is, of course, unless the forecasts change. Export demand is still much better than necessary with 489,400 MT of 09/10 sales and 215,000 MT of 10/11 sales. Eventually we will see the demand create a bull market in the beans, but we need to get past harvest first.

Live Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed modestly lower on Wednesday, with traders uncertain of positions ahead of this week’s cash and on feed report. Some light trade in the north at the $130-$131 levels was disappointing, but it appears to be limited. Remainder of the show lists in the north are priced $135+, while the south remains firm at $87. Cutout values dropped some of their early week gains on Wednesday and reported movement was modest. Look for cash trade to be limited unless packers up their anti. Cash could be delayed until after the report on Friday. The slower slaughter pace on Wednesday could be a sign that packers have become very short bought.

Feeder Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle closed narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with weaker live cattle futures somewhat offsetting 10 cent lower corn values. The cash index dropped .16 on the day. Overnight activity was choppy, with corn price ranging from .05 higher to .05 lower. The close near session lows is expected to be supportive to the feeders in this morning’s trade. Friday’s report could lend surprises to either side of the market, so expect trade to remain fairly subdued unless grains make a significant move.