Corn                                  Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down             Net Long Futures and Options: -26801
Overnight Trade: Z -4       Change: -5000
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

The forecasts are not threatening, so the corn will start this week like it spent the last half of last week, which is trending lower. With no weather threat the assumption, or fear, is that the crop is getting bigger and ending stocks are growing. The market will trend lower until traders feel that the crop is no longer growing and we haven’t reached that point yet. It won’t help that the outside market influences are negative today as well.

Wheat                               Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down            Net Long Futures and Options: -68939
Long Term: Down            Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -2 1/2 KC: Z -2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower

The wheat will pick up where it left off last week as well. It seems like the wheat is benefiting from spread activity and that is the reason we haven’t seen new lows yet. However, new lows are probably inevitable since there is no supportive news, the outside markets are negative and the corn and soybeans are trending lower.

Soybeans                          Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Up                Net Long Futures and Options: 11899
Long Term: Down           Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: X -8 1/2
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower

The soybean situation is basically the same as the corn. There are no threats in the forecast, which leads to the assumption that the crop in getting bigger and that ending stocks are going to be more than adequate. The soybeans still have excellent demand, but we are headed into the largest supply time period of the year, so it is hard to rally the market with just demand. A lower close today will turn a number of technical indicators down and point to a move back below $9.00 in the November

Live Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures are expected to open the week mixed, with last week’s lower cash and marginally bearish on feed report clashing with expected tightening supplies and rising economics. Show lists and beef movement will be monitored today, but lower futures on climbing open interest late in the week does not bode well near term. Large specs continue to add to their long position in the live cattle, but new lows for the move could hasten their retreat.

Feeder Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed the week with losses of 2.30 basis the October contract. October put in its lowest trade since the first half of June and is threatening to test calendar year lows of 94.60 put in back in February. Overnight weakness in the corn market should support the feeders, as well as cash index levels that remain well above the current board prices. Like the live cattle, open interest has risen on recent weakness. Not usually a good sign.