Corn                                                     Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up                                     Net Long Futures and Options: 121163
Overnight Trade: Z -1                           Change: -13000
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower

The corn was sharply lower yesterday, but had no follow through pressure overnight. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that only 20% of the US corn has been harvested compared with 58% on average. Harvest delays and potential crop loss is a major concern. The outside market influences were positive in overnight trade and since the strong Dollar/weak stock market combination was the main reason for yesterday’s weakness in the corn it will be important to watch those markets again today. Look for two sided trade and a recovery bounce today.

Wheat                                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                      Net Long Futures and Options: -33592
Long Term: Up                                      Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -3 1/2 KC: Z +1 1/4
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower


SRW planting is still well behind normal with only 33% of the Illinois crop planted compared with 82% on average. The planting progress stats didn’t help the wheat market recover from yesterday’s losses in overnight trade, but certainly could during the day session. The most important feature of the wheat market today will likely be the outside markets. Weakness in the Dollar will result in a bounce in the wheat.

Soybeans                                                 Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                                        Net Long Futures and Options: 48097
Long Term: Up                                         Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: X +1/4
Opening Calls: 1-2 Higher


Like the wheat and corn the soybeans were under heavy pressure yesterday, but didn’t do much overnight. This morning traders will be waiting to see what the Dollar does in order to pick a direction. Only 44% of the soybeans have been harvested compared with 80% on average, so there are yield loss concerns, but that will take a back seat to the outside markets today.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: 10-20 Higher


Live cattle futures closed modestly lower on Monday, pressured by outside markets, i.e. 2.00 losses in crude and 100 points decline in the Dow. Overnight activity traded both sides of unchanged early, but looks ready to open the day session on a firmer note. Cutout values were up over 1.00 on choice cuts as packers look to improve margins. Word that Kansas cattle are moving south already this week looks supportive for the region. The 100 day moving average of 87.70 basis the December contract remains the next key resistance level. Show list are smaller in the south, more than offsetting the slight rise in northern numbers.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher


Feeder cattle futures recovered from early weakness, after getting a boost from 20 cent losses in the corn pit. Strong technical strength in the fats along with modest continuation in the corn overnight, should lead to higher trade in feeders this morning. November is up nearly .50 in electronic trade. Recent highs of 96.50 and the 50 day moving average of 97.22 loom as the next resistance levels for the November feeders. Cash index levels are showing signs of solid improvement over the next few days.