Corn                                             Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down                       Net Long Futures and Options: -37106
Overnight Trade: Z -1/4              Change: +5000
Opening Calls: 1-3 Higher

As expected the corn yield estimate was increased to a new record high level of 161.9 bu/ac. There was however, a sizeable increase in the demand figures so ending stock only increased 14 million bushels to 1.635 billion. Export sales were good at 1.03 MMT. The numbers could have been worse. With ending stocks not growing much, there may be more short covering today. Overall the trend is still down and we will continue to look at strength as a selling opportunity.

Wheat                                            Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down                          Net Long Futures and Options: -77927
Long Term: Down                          Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +2 3/4 KC: Z +2 1/4
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower

The wheat supply and demand numbers were left unchanged this morning, which is slightly less bearish than expectations. There still isn’t any reason to get excited about the wheat market. Technical indicators are very oversold, but that is about the only reason to try and buy. Export sales were better than last week at 551,400 MT, but that is nothing to get excited about. Wheat could bounce today if the corn does, but strength is temporary.

Soybeans                                       Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down                         Net Long Futures and Options: 16186
Long Term: Down                         Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: X +2 1/2
Opening Calls: 2-3 Lower

Soybean yield was increased to 42.3 bu/ac, which was in line with expectations. Ending stocks were raised to 220 million, which was also expected. Export sales were very good again at 830,000 MT. Traders are going to quickly go back to thinking about harvest pressure, non-threatening forecasts and good demand, which means we will probably see another sideways/lower trading day.

Live Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed modestly lower on Thursday, as traders await this week’s cash movement for further direction. A jump of nearly 3500 in open interest on Thursday indicates new money moving into the market, with a slight bias to the sell side. Cash bids to the north trickled in slightly higher than a week ago levels, but will likely have to come up another couple of dollars to generate much business. Cutout values were slightly lower but may take a backseat to near term momentum and tightening supplies.

Feeder Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle struggled on Thursday, giving back most of the previous day’s gains, due to lackluster live cattle action and strengthening corn values. Cash feeder index rose .18 to 98.81 on the day. Corn values were mostly steady overnight, heading into this morning’s monthly supply/demand report. Near term corn price should have as much effect on feeders as anything, with break evens for next spring starting to look much more attractive than we’ve seen for a while.