Corn                                          Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down                   Net Long Futures and Options: -25163
Overnight Trade: Z -4             Change: +6000
Opening Calls: 2-4 Lower

The corn market failed to build on Friday’s gains and will start the day lower. Outside market influences are negative and forecasts, for the most part, are still non-threatening. With the September crop report behind us, traders are going to start thinking about the October report and ideas that the production figure will be even higher then. We had a corrective bounce last week and now the corn market will likely resume the down trend and make a harvest low sometime between now and the October supply and demand report.

Wheat                                      Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -66122
Long Term: Down                  Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -7 3/4 KC: Z -6 1/4
Opening Calls: 5-7 Lower

The December KW posted an outside day higher on Friday, which could be a sign of a bottom. However, there was no follow through strength overnight and there hasn’t been a change in fundamentals that would suggest the market is ready for a turn around. Look for a few days of choppy, consolidation type trade as the market relieves the oversold condition of the market.

Soybeans                                Estimated Fund Position
Short Term: Down                Net Long Futures and Options: 3324
Long Term: Down                Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: X -8
Opening Calls: 5-10 Lower

Harvest in the Delta is pressuring the soybeans. Demand is still excellent, but supplies are being replenished, which is holding the market down. The $8.80 area should provide some support to the November soybeans, but eventually the market will probably move down to the $7.80 area. If demand stays strong there is great potential for a post harvest rally, but for the time being look for more weakness.

Live Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: 10-30 Lower

Live cattle futures are likely to start the week on a weak note, following disappointing cash trade in the south and declining boxed beef values. Cash traded fully steady in the south, but failed to maintain recent upward momentum. Asking prices should remain near $87 in the south and $135+ in the north. Today will be spent collecting show list data and finishing off the Goldman Role. Last week’s lows of 86.80 basis the October contract should act as solid support to start the week.

Feeder Cattle
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Call: Steady/Lower

Feeder cattle futures closed .75 higher for the week basis the October contract, and could see support from lower corn values to start the week. Pressure could stem from lower live cattle futures and the cash feeder index dropping .43 on Friday. Look for two sided trade early in the week as traders and producers struggle for clear near term direction. Lower cost of gains projected into the Winter and Spring time frames should lend support to the cash market as break evens continue to decline.