Total projected supplies for 2009/10, at 2,961 million bushels, are unchanged from August, but 29 million bushels above 2008/09. Higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production and imports year to year.
Projected supplies for 2009/10 for soft red winter (SRW) are down year to year and nearly unchanged for hard red winter (HRW). Supplies for the other classes are projected up year to year.
All-wheat production is estimated at 2,183 million bushels in 2009, unchanged from August, but down 316 million bushels from 2008. All-wheat harvested area is 50.4 million acres, down 5.3 million acres from last year. The U.S. all-wheat yield is 43.3 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from last year. Last year’s yield of 44.9 bushels per acre was a record high.
Among the five classes of wheat, 2009 production is down sharply from 2008 for HRW and SRW. Only durum production is up year to year. The sharp decline in SRW production is due to both reduced area and yield from 2008, while the decline in HRW is due to lower yields. The yields of the other classes of wheat are up year to year, especially durum.
Domestic use of wheat is unchanged from August, but projected up year-to-year 18 million bushels, to 1,268 million bushels. Projected food use, at 955 million bushels, is unchanged from August, but is up 29 million bushels from 2008/09 because of population growth and an expected return to a more normal flour- extraction rate. The extraction rate for 2008/09 was the highest in at least 20 years.
Total project feed and residual use for 2009/10, at 235 million bushels, is unchanged from August. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is down 11 million bushels from 2008/09. Although total feed and residual use is unchanged, 20 million bushels was shifted away from HRW to SRW because of price relationships for these two classes of wheat relative to corn favored feeding of SRW.
Projected exports for 2009/10 are 950 million bushels, unchanged from August, but 65 million bushels below 2008/09 because of expected high U.S. prices relative to competing exporters.
Projected total ending stocks for 2009/10, at 743 million bushels, are unchanged from August, but up 76 million bushels from 2008/09. By class, the only ending stock changes are due to the 20-million-bushel changes in HRW and SRW feed and residual use.
2009/10 Price Range
The projected all-wheat season-average farm price range is $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, down 20 cents from the high end of the August range. This range is below the 2008/09 price of $6.78, which was a record high.