Planting delays in the eastern Corn Belt, especially Ohio and Indiana, and in the Northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, offsetting potential gains in the western Corn Belt and central Plains. Planted area is reduced 1.5 million acres as some of this land is expected to remain too wet to plant to corn. Harvested area is lowered 1.9 million acres to 83.2 million, reflecting early assessments of May flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, and June flooding along the Missouri River valley. Production is projected 305 million bushels lower at 13,200 million, but is still a record. This month’s yield projection is unchanged at 158.7 bushels per acre because the crucial July and August weather that will determine yields remains unknown.
Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is projected 100 million bushels lower this month. Higher prices for corn are expected to ration demand for feed use. Feed use is projected at 5,000 million bushels for the marketing year, compared with 5,150 for 2010/11. Projected food, seed, and industrial use for 2011/12 is unchanged at 6,455 million bushels, 55 million higher than 2010/11. Ethanol production, mostly using corn as a feedstock, continues to advance, according to weekly Energy Information Agency data. As the share of corn that is not forward contracted at favorable price declines, margins will decrease, although higher petroleum prices may be an offsetting factor.
The lower feed and residual projection reduces projected corn use for 2011/12 to 13,255 million bushels, 195 million bushels below 2010/11.
The sorghum export projection for 2011/12 is increased from 130 million bushels to 135 million. Shipments to Mexico are expected higher due to tight corn supplies.