Latest News From Cattle Market Reports and Analysis

Cash cattle markets edged lower and while wholesale beef and futures markets were mixed. Cattle on Feed totals were up for the seventh consecutive month and placements lower than expected.

While the heifer percentage in feedlots remains above the average of the past ten years, the decline from January to April is an encouraging sign that heifer feeding is perhaps slowing.

Cattle and hog feeders are benefitting from dramatically lower grain and feed costs this year while live animal sale prices are higher. Profit margins for both species have doubled in the past month.

Carcass weights have trended heavier for over 60 years with steer carcass weights increasing by an average of 4.0 pounds per year, up over 240 pounds from 660 pounds in the 1960s to over 900 pounds in recent years.

Declining cattle futures provided leverage for packers to collect inventory with softer bids.

Negotiated cash cattle prices moved lower again under pressure from sinking futures markets. The red-hot hamburger market kept pushing most utility cows higher.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced it’s canceling the July Cattle Inventory Report. In the announcement, NASS blamed budget cuts from the most recent appropriations bills. 

NASS said the decision to discontinue select surveys was necessary given appropriated budget levels. NCBA noted its objections to the plan.

Finished cattle, feeders, calves and the futures markets were all in retreat as the HPAI event becomes the latest beef industry black swan.

The latest data on steer weights shows 23 pounds heavier than a year ago at 922-pounds, record-high for the first two weeks in March. That's a sharply higher trend line in a time when weights historically trend lighter.

Packers were quick to act on last week’s falling futures, but cattle feeders held firm in a week that could have moved much lower.

Cattle futures traded on both sides of unchanged before heavy selling emerged in the afternoon sending prices sharply lower into the close.

News of HPAI in dairies in the southern plains gave futures bears reason to react early last week, and the negative psychology spilled over into the cash trade as all regions traded lower.

Cash fed cattle prices reached new record highs in all feeding regions last week, but the trade was a bracket-buster for packers who were forced to pay up as wholesale beef prices declined.

Cattle feeders displayed their market leverage this week as active trading pushed prices to new record highs. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report identified another strong placement increase.

Mexico has become one of the major beef import sources for the U.S. as beef trade evolved from simply supplementing deficit beef production in Mexico to bilateral, product specific trade between the two countries.

All classes of cattle sold at higher prices for the week and most are at or near record highs. Supplies of all classes remain extremely tight.

Lean beef trimmings, a key component of ground beef production, have rallied significantly, with the price of 90% lean trimmings quoted over $317 per cwt. the first week of March, an all-time record dating back to 1978.

Beef packers slow harvest lines and scramble for inventory as they attempt to keep a lid on cash prices.

Negotiated cattle prices moved higher again as supplies continue tightening. Packers are caught in significant margin squeeze with marketing leverage continuing to favor cattle feeders.

All classes of cattle and futures prices moved higher for the week ending March 1. April live cattle closed at the highest level since early November.

Futures markets lend support to cash as packers looked to add inventory ahead of Cattle on Feed report.

Cash cattle posted solid gains this week as futures prices closed the week with four-month highs. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report met expectations with the exception of placements, which were higher than anticipated.

The January thaw across most of the cattle feeding regions helped spur the year's first weekly gains for market-ready cattle. The rally was noticed by traders in Chicago as futures markets posted 10-week highs.

Despite a state-wide drought and market challenges into fall, average prices for Show-Me-Select heifers posted healthy prices at six sanctioned sale locations.

Negotiated cash trade finished the week in a standoff with few sales and little price movement. Feeders and packers both look to benefit from improving winter weather and pen conditions this week.

The onset of severe cold temperatures and snow in a broad spectrum of cattle feeding regions will pull fed cattle production down. Beyond the reduced weekly slaughter head counts, carcass weights are set to plunge.

Severe winter weather across cattle feeding country reduced weekly harvest and damaged feeding performance. Cattle feeders will seek higher prices this week.

Brutal winter weather disrupted cattle markets and significantly curtailed cattle harvest in western Kansas. Cash cattle trades were steady to lower while wholesale beef prices posted a significant rally.

There remains a lot of noise around the issue of LRPs in the cattle markets. That was best described by one of my readers last week: “[most of the critics] don’t even understand the facts, let alone the myths.”

Economics and the impact on weights – both longer-term and decisions based on short term factors will play an important part in determining beef production in 2024.

After reaching a peak price in August, cull cow and bull prices moved higher to end the year on a positive note.

A year ago feeders were concerned about weathered cattle and tough pen conditions and how at times it would be the motivation for sellers to take the market.  It’s eerie how not much has changed in that sense.

Cash fed cattle prices traded at higher prices the first week of the New Year despite a significant decline for wholesale beef prices.

Feedyards saw higher cash cattle bids for the second consecutive week as the market closed the year on an upswing. Futures prices finished the week lower.

Multiple packers participated last week in a market that turned higher for the first time since Halloween.

December's Cattle on Feed showed December feedlot inventories were 102.7 percent of last year. Texas on feed number was up 4% and Kansas was up 7%.

Cattle traded in moderate volumes at higher prices, posting the first weekly gains in more than six weeks. USDA's Cattle on Feed total was 2% higher.

The pool of bred beef heifers is likely to remain low going into 2024, keeping the prospects of beef cow herd growth minimal in the coming year.

Increased packer margins in recent weeks has encouraged a quicker chain speed. That speed likely will not be supported through the end of the year with two Holiday shortened weeks.

LRPs and options are essential risk management tools, but coffee shop talk suggests LRPs are driving the cash market lower. Let's examine the data to keep the discussion measured and objective.

Cattle feeding margins fell deeper into the red while packer losses doubled from the prior week. Pork producer margins have now printed red every week for the past year.

Under current market conditions beef exports are expected to decrease and beef imports should increase...exactly the outcome observed thus far in 2023, says economist Derrell Peel.

Cash cattle and wholesale beef prices continued their fourth quarter retreat and record heavy carcass weights suggest cattle feeders have lost marketing leverage.

Few things in cattle market trends are entirely predictable but the fact that carcass weights peak in November is as close to a sure bet as one could identify.

Some blame the recent rout in the futures markets on LRP (Livestock Revenue Protection), a claim that is wholly unsubstantiated. A look at the data confirms LRP blame really is a smoke monster. 

Declining cattle futures prices continue to pressure cash prices. The cheaper inventories are working to pad the packer's pocket as evidenced by a few plants operating on Saturdays.

Market-ready cattle prices have rolled back $10 per cwt. since the end of October and average carcass weights have increased to all-time highs, a sign feedlots are not as current as previously expected.

There seems a belief that speculators – either too many or not quite enough – are solely responsible for driving the market one direction or another. But bashing speculators is what people do who don’t like the price.

Cattle futures markets have come under criticism lately for their volatility. A common theme is there are "too many shorts" or "too many longs." That ignores the fundamental fact that futures markets must come in pairs.